Abstract The oceans play an important role in mitigating climate change by acting as large carbon sinks, especially at high latitude regions. The Southern Ocean plays a major role in the global carbon dioxide (CO2) budget. This work aims to investigate the behavior of turbulent CO2 fluxes and quantify it under different atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Drake Passage and Bransfield Strait regions on high spatiotemporal resolutions when compared with traditional CO2 fluxes estimations. The atmospheric stability condition was used to corroborate the description of CO2 fluxes. In situ, satellite, and reanalysis data from 08 to 22 November 2018, were used in this work. The Bransfield Strait uptaked 38.59% more CO2 than the Drake Passage due to the cold and fresh waters, allied to the influence of glacial meltwater dilution. Which increased the CO2 solubility, directing the CO2 fluxes to the ocean. The Bransfield Strait had predominantly stable atmospheric conditions, which contributed to this region acting as a CO2 sink. The Drake Passage, on average, behaved as a CO2 sink, mainly due to physical characteristics. This research contributes to a better understanding of the Southern Ocean’s role in the global carbon balance on scales that are very difficult to monitor.

Abstract The Antarctic region has experienced recent climate and environmental variations due to climate change, such as ice sheets and ice shelves loss, and changes in the production, extension, and thickness of sea-ice. These processes mainly affect the freshwater supply to the Southern Ocean and its water masses formation and export, being crucial to changes in the global climate. Here, we review the influence of the glacial freshwater input on the Antarctic Peninsula adjacent ocean. We highlight each climate process’ relevance on freshwater contribution to the sea and present a current overview of how these processes are being addressed and studied. The increase of freshwater input into the ocean carries several implications on climate, regionally and globally. Due to glacier melting, the intrusion of colder and lighter water into the ocean increases the stratification of the water column, influencing the sea-ice increase and reducing ocean-atmosphere exchanges, affecting the global water cycle. This study shows the role of each hydrological cycle processes and their contributions to the regional oceanography and potentially to climate.

Abstract The formation of dense water masses at polar regions has been largely influenced by climate changes arising from global warming. In this context, based on ensemble simulations with a coupled model we evaluate the meridional shift of a climate signal (i.e., a cold and fresh water input pulse generated from melting of positive Antarctic sea ice (ASI) extremes) towards the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (TAO). This oceanic signal propagated from Southern Ocean towards the equator through the upper layers due to an increase in its buoyance. Its northward shift has given by the Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) flows, that inject cold and fresh mode/intermediate waters from into subtropical basin. The signal has reached low latitudes through the equatorial upwelling and spreads out southwards, through the upper branch of southern subtropical gyre. We concluded that 10 years of coupled simulations was enough time to propagate the climate signal generated by ASI positive extremes melting, which reached TOA around 2 year later. The oceanic connection between Southern Ocean and TAO is indeed established within the timescale analyzed in the study (10 years). Nonetheless, the period needed to completely dissipate the disturbance generated from ASI seems to be longer.

Abstract The variability of Antarctic sea ice (ASI) has great potential to affect atmospheric circulation, with impacts that can extend from the surface to the middle and high levels of troposphere. The present study has evaluated the response of South Atlantic tropospheric circulation to increased coverage in area and volume of ASI. Monthly data of air temperature, zonal and meridional wind and mean sea level pressure were obtained from two ensemble simulations performed with the GDFL/CM2.1 model, covering the period from July 2020 to June 2030. In general, the response of South Atlantic tropospheric circulation to increased ASI showed that the climatic signal extended up from the surface to the high levels, propagating as a South Pole–Tropics teleconnection. The results show a general cooling of the southern troposphere, which for instance lead to the strengthening and northward shift of the polar jet and the southward shift of the subtropical jet and to an inversion from the positive to negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode. This study has great relevance for understanding the global climate changes in short term, by assessing the sensitivity of South Atlantic tropospheric circulation to extreme variations in ASI.

Abstract Global climate change is expected to increasingly affect climate-sensitive sectors of society, such as the economy and environment, with significant impacts on water, energy, agriculture and fisheries. This is the case in South America, whose economy is highly dependent on the agricultural sector. Here, we analyzed the sensitivity of South American climate to positive extremes of Antarctic sea ice (ASI) extent and volume at continental and regional scales. Sensitivity ensemble experiments were conducted with the GFDL-CM2.1 model and compared with the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. The results have shown significant impacts on the seasonal regime of precipitation, air temperature and humidity in South America, such as a gradual establishment of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, the formation of the Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortex, the strengthening of Bolivian High and the presence of a low level cyclonic circulation anomaly over the South Atlantic Subtropical High region which contributed, for instance, to increased precipitation over the Southeastern Brazil. A northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone was initially also a response pattern to the increased ASI. Moreover, the greatest variance of the climatic signal generated from the disturbances applied on the high southern latitudes has occurred in the interseasonal timescale (110–120 days), especially over the Brazilian Amazon and the Southeastern Brazil regions.

Uma técnica de pós-processamento é aplicada para corrigir estatisticamente, as previsões de precipitação geradas pelos modelos climáticos numéricos disponíveis no CPTEC. O método chamado de Esquema Estatístico de Combinação e Correção de Previsões Climáticas (ECCOCLIM) é determinístico e baseia-se no método de Regressão Linear Múltipla (RLM). A verificação do desempenho é feita com a técnica de validação cruzada. Apesar dos ganhos observados nas previsões com o novo método serem localizados e variados ao longo dos anos, estes são destacados em áreas da América do Sul, as quais usualmente apresentam baixa previsibilidade climática, como no caso das regiões Sudeste e Centro-Oeste. Em geral, sobre a América do Sul o ECCOCLIM mostra resultados melhores, reduzindo os erros, comparados à tradicional média aritmética das previsões de diferentes modelos.

A post-processing technique is applied to statistically correct the rainfall forecasts done by numerical climate models available at CPTEC. The statistical algorithm, called Climate Forecast Combining and Correcting Statistical Scheme (ECCOCLIM), is deterministic and based on the Linear Multiple Regression (LMR) method. The skill of the ECCOCLIM is verified with the cross-validation method. Although the forecast improvements using the new method are localized in certain regions and vary throughout the year, they are remarkable over South America, mainly in those areas where climatic previsibility is commonly low as the case of Southeast and Central-West regions. ECCOCLIM shows encouraging results over South America reducing the errors when compared to the traditional arithmetic mean of forecasts of different models.